How trustworthy are the polls, more than a year after the 2016 election?

Over the past year, political professionals have been picking over the pre-election polling data to figure out whether the polls failed to predict Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton. In many people’s minds, the polls were flat wrong in 2016. Actually, it’s more complicated than that. When the the American Association for Public Opinion Research asked a blue-ribbon panel of polling specialists to critique the industry’s performance in 2016, they found some important oversights and misfires. But the panel also emphasized that, contrary to popular belief, the national polls weren’t that far off. After interviewing almost a dozen pollsters … >>More
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